Ohio Assessments for Educators (OAE) Mathematics Practice Exam

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What is subjective probability based on?

Mathematical calculations
Your own experiences and beliefs
Statistical data
Logical deductions

The correct answer is: Your own experiences and beliefs

Subjective probability is based on an individual's personal experiences, judgments, and beliefs about the likelihood of an event occurring. It reflects a person’s unique interpretation of relevant factors and their past interactions with similar situations. For example, if someone has experienced a particular event multiple times and has a strong belief about its outcome, their probability estimate for that event will be influenced by those experiences rather than objective or empirical data. This type of probability is contrasted with objective probability, which relies on statistical data and mathematical calculations. While other forms of probability rely on established data or logical reasoning, subjective probability can vary significantly from person to person because it is inherently tied to personal perspectives and insights, making it a more individualistic approach to assessing chances of occurrence.